No one understands that better than Kim Jong Pil. Known as JP locally, the 75-year-old politician and former spy chief has survived at the center of South Korean politics for 40 years by acting as the quintessential No. 2 man. Last week he abandoned his latest patron, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, by siding with the opposition in a no-confidence vote on the administration’s point man in negotiations with North Korea. The move not only ended a four-year alliance, but forced the entire South Korean cabinet to resign and cast a cloud over Kim’s “Sunshine Policy” of engagement with Pyongyang. In effect, with more than a year left until presidential elections in December 2002, South Korea’s kingmaker is signaling that Kim’s days on the throne are numbered.
JP has yet to announce his next move, but most political observers expect him to align his United Liberal Democrats, which hold 16 seats in the 270-member Legislature, with the conservative Grand National Party (GNP). The move makes sense ideologically–both parties support more-cautious reconciliation with North Korea and slower economic reforms. Just as important, polls show that opposition chief Lee Hoi Chang, defeated narrowly in the 1997 presidential election, is by far the leading candidate to replace Kim. “JP broke up with President Kim because he didn’t see much hope there,” said Kim Young Rae, a politics professor at Ajou University. “JP’s political life would be extended if he joins hands with Lee.”
Such a move would also hobble President Kim for the remainder of his term. The GNP already holds the greatest number of seats in Parliament; with the added support, the opposition coalition would be able to block most of the administration’s policies. Any government measures to accelerate corporate restructuring and other economic reforms will face tougher resistance, while JP is likely to lead the growing chorus of complaints about the Sunshine Policy. Last week’s announcement that Seoul would resume cabinet-level negotiations with Pyongyang may prove too little, too late. Kim has already angered influential voices in the media with a tax probe that has led to the arrest of several newspaper owners. And analysts warn that the ailing South Korean economy, battered by the tech slowdown in the United States, is not likely to pick up until next year at the earliest. “It would take a miracle for President Kim to turn things around during the remainder of his term,” says Henry Morris at Seoul-based Industrial Research and Consulting.
JP has honed the power to make or break presidents over four decades in politics. In 1961, as a retired colonel, he provided much-needed intelligence and the loyalty of mid-level officers to support Army Gen. Park Chung Hee’s military coup. As Park’s right-hand man, he later founded the national spy agency and served as prime minister. He left politics shortly after Park was assassinated in 1979. But during democratic elections in 1992, he returned to help elect former dissident Kim Young Sam as president. As chairman of the governing party in the new administration, he loyally helped purge members of the old guard from the government, including some of his former allies. Nevertheless, Kim dumped him three years later for having been too closely involved in past authoritarian regimes.
The current President Kim seems an even less likely partner–also a former dissident, but one with far more leftist views on the economy and relations with the North. JP’s conservative appeal helped Kim Dae Jung mitigate that radical image during the campaign, and in an election decided by a mere 2 percent, JP’s home region accounted for up to 5 percent of the vote. But the marriage of convenience–Kim made JP prime minister again and appointed several of his party members as key cabinet ministers–has been bumpy from the start. Kim’s people often complained that the government couldn’t push for more-liberal policies, particularly toward North Korea, because of opposition from JP’s camp. The president’s traditional allies–labor unions and less-privileged groups–have always been suspicious of JP’s support for the corporate elite.
The wily defector still faces a rocky road back to power. It’s unclear whether the GNP or its leader Lee will partner with JP’s small party given its negative image among the public. (The United Liberal Democrats have an approval rating of only 5 percent.) The fact that JP supported Kim’s Sunshine Policy until very recently may alienate conservative voters. And for younger citizens, JP symbolizes the old-school system of politicking based on regional affiliations. “What JP has followed for the past 40 years was not his belief or ideology,” says Lee Nam Ju, a politics professor at Sungkonghoe University. “It was simply power.” Like Kim Dae Jung, he may now find that road to be a dead end.
